The former Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah passed away on 29th September 2020 in the United States. He was 91. He was the architect of modern Kuwait’s foreign policy. Serving as the foreign minister for nearly 40 years between 1963 and 2003, he was a fervent defender of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) unity. He was regarded by some as the voice of wisdom as he mediated in the Gulf crisis that pitted Qatar against three of its GCC brethren. It will be interesting to have an insight into the effects the former Emir’s death will have on GCC relations.
Sheikh Sabah had said at the opening session of the Kuwaiti parliament’s new term in 2019 that it was no longer acceptable nor tolerable to have an ongoing dispute among our brotherly GCC states. He underlined the urgency of ending a sea, land, and air blockade imposed on Qatar since 2017 by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Egypt.
Kuwait’s new emir, 83-year-old Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah who was sworn in on 30th September 2020, will face a range of challenges the late, widely respected statesman was dealing with. According to some analysts, the commitment of Kuwait’s leadership to speaking up for GCC unity could very well be tested.
Strains On GCC Relations?
Some members of the ruling family of Kuwait are very close to Saudi Arabia. With Sheikh Sabah, it was difficult to influence the members. But now there might be an opportunity.
A source familiar with Kuwait’s political circle said that a border issue could again become a source of tension between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The two Gulf Arab monarchies agreed to divide a neutral zone in the area. And also incorporate each half into their respective territory in the 1970s. All this while sharing and jointly managing the zone’s petroleum wealth. But there has been tension over the area in recent years.
Former MP Al Anjari also pointed out that, although the role of Kuwait’s National Assembly is minimal when it comes to matters related to foreign policy, Kuwait is a constitutional monarchy, unlike most GCC states. Parliament plays an active role in challenging the government of Kuwait. And any departure from the country’s traditional neutrality will likely face resistance from the Parliament.
According to a Kuwaiti source, no other figures in Kuwait have the same level of experience in navigating regional tensions as Sheikh Sabah. But others believe that most likely there will be no major change in Kuwait’s foreign policy or its vulnerability to external pressures due to Sheikh Nawaf’s standing. The current Emir’s seniority will itself be a deterrent to external pressures.
Role Of The United States In Mitigating The Gulf-Rift
The intra-GCC divisions have undermined the role the council plays in fostering regional economic cooperation among states. It still relies heavily on oil revenues to sustain generous social welfare systems and to employ most of its citizens.
The issue will be more pressing as the COVID-19 crisis has affected Kuwait’s economy. Also, low oil prices are facing a significant liquidity crisis. But Kuwait is not necessarily dependent on bail-outs from other Gulf countries.
The United States will be playing a major role in GCC relations going forward. Washington is trying to mediate the GCC rift, which has undermined its efforts to form a united front against Iran. Iran is Saudi Arabia’s longtime regional enemy that has also been engaged in an escalating dispute with the US.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said recently that the Trump administration is eager to see the Gulf crisis resolved. In early September, the top US diplomat for the Middle East, David Schenker, expressed cautious optimism. According to him, the blockade against Qatar may end soon. He also cited signs of flexibility in negotiations as Washington has stepped up its diplomatic efforts.
The US is also trying to build an Arab-Israeli rapprochement to form a united front against Iranian expansionism.
On 29th September, US President Donald Trump stated that he hopes that the Gulf nations will come together to honor Sheikh Sabah’s legacy and work toward the cooperative future The former Emir has envisioned.
